The financial talking heads were atwitter this week as the Dow Jones Industrials climbed above 11,000. While we shared in this welcome news, we are also mindful of another fact that is discussed less often: The Dow first broke 11,000 in March 1999.
That is worth remembering as the majority of economists and other financial advisors persist in advising fixed-income investors to remain in money-market funds or short-term “laddered” bond portfolios and wait for the higher long-term interest rates they assure us are right around the corner.
It has always been a thorn in our side that these false prophets, despite being wrong for the past 30 years, have not suffered for the errors of their ways, though investors who have taken their advice clearly have.
We started alerting investors to the dangers of trying to predict the direction of interest rates at the inception of our Web site in 2001. “Why do so many financial professionals advocate laddering?” we asked at the time. The only conclusion we could draw was that they thought it implied a greater degree of sophistication, or they never took the time to examine the strategy they were recommending.
Our contention has always been that tax-free bond investing is simple, and a little common sense goes a long way.
The most successful municipal bond investors are those who, after first being satisfied with credit quality, maximize their tax-free income by purchasing long-term bonds.
The Cost of Waiting Has Never Been Greater
A high quality 10-year laddered portfolio today would produce an average yield of approximately 2.00%. A long-term bond of similar quality can be purchased to yield approximately 4.50%. Most brokers see this as a difference of 2.50%. It isn’t.
On a $100,000 investment, the laddered portfolio produces income of $2,000 per year, as opposed to $4,500 annually on the long-term bond.
Do the Math
The long-term bond produces an extra $2,500, which is actually a whopping 125% more income.
It’s easy to see that the laddered portfolio will never catch up, even if interest rates do rise. The cost becomes even more onerous if investment dollars are parked in a money-market fund or CD.
Aldous Huxley said, “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” The fact is, the practice of maximizing tax-free income on every purchase has greatly outperformed laddering portfolios. This is irrefutable.
Years after initially airing our views on the fallacy of laddering, we were asked to share our thoughts on municipal bond investing with columnist Bernard Condon in the Forbes Investment Guide. His article, “Supercharged Munis”, exposed what he called the “conventional wisdom” of buying muni bonds in cautiously staggered maturities. And nothing has changed.
The Past is Prologue
Consider what the Dow reaching 11,000 really means. If you invested in a Dow Index fund in 1999 — more than 11 years ago — you would have nothing to show for it today. On the other hand, a $100,000 investment in a 6.00% high-quality tax-free bond would have produced $66,000 in tax-free income over this same period, not including reinvestment.
You probably won’t hear that on TV today. Sadly, when it comes to the pundits and “experts” who dominate the financial media, the old adage still rings true: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”