Signs of Progress in Puerto Rico Credit Outlook

Klotz on Bonds

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<h3>James A. Klotz</h3>

James A. Klotz

Investors are demonstrating increased confidence in Puerto Rico debt as commonwealth leaders move to balance its budget and shore up its pension system.

The extra yield that buyers demand for Puerto Rico debt, 2.12% as of last week, is near its lowest since the beginning of 2013, according to Bloomberg.

Puerto Rico, whose debt is tax-exempt nationwide, is preparing for a $600 million sale of Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority debt, its first bond sale of the year.

Promise of balanced budget in two years

Rating agencies had cut Puerto Rico’s debt rating earlier this year, citing its ballooning deficits.

However, in an interview with the industry publication The Bond Buyer, Jose Pagan, the interim president of the commonwealth’s Government Development Bank, said the government is addressing problems that have weakened its credit.

The general fund budget deficit shrunk from $3.3 billion in fiscal year 2009 to $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2013, since revised to $1.29 billion, and the government anticipates a further decline to $820 million next year.

“We expect to continue reducing our budgetary deficit, discontinue the use of deficit financings, reduce our recent reliance on debt service restructurings, and finally submit a balanced budget within the next two fiscal years,” Pagan said.

Though Puerto Rico’s economy has slumped since November, Pagan said it was an expected contraction as a result of the post-election cycle.

“Nevertheless, if the current employment promotion policies are successful, we could be experiencing better economic conditions and performance during fiscal year 2015 and beyond.”

He said the government plans to create 50,000 jobs to immediately ease unemployment and institute measures aimed at longer-term relief.

In June, the new governor of Puerto Rico, Alejandro Garcia Padilla, signed a budget that included $750 million of deficit financing. This represents the smallest gap in at least four years.

James A. Klotz is the President of FMSbonds, Inc.
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Aug 2, 2013

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